Renate U19 0–3 Cremonese U19: Result & Stats

Renate U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cremonese U19

2/24/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 20Stadio Mario Riboldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Renate U1925%

×Draw26%

Cremonese U1950%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renate U19Expected goals in this matchCremonese U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.52

Renate U19

0.99

Cremonese U19

1.52

Cremonese U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 55 away

1.16

creates per match

1.96

1.09

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Renate U19

1.16

Cremonese U19

1.96

allows per match

Renate U19

1.09

Cremonese U19

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renate U19+0.00on par

Cremonese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renate U19 ↓

Cremonese U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Renate U19 or draw

50%

Renate U19 or Cremonese U19

74%

Draw or Cremonese U19

75%

Winning margin

Renate U19 wins by 2+

9%

Cremonese U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Renate U19 1+ goals

63%

Renate U19 2+ goals

26%

Renate U19 3+ goals

8%

Cremonese U19 1+ goals

78%

Cremonese U19 2+ goals

45%

Cremonese U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Renate U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renate U19 at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

Cremonese U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renate U19 attack 1.16 + Cremonese U19 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Cremonese U19 attack 1.96 + Renate U19 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Renate U19 scores more

25%

level

26%

Cremonese U19 scores more

50%

Cremonese U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cremonese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff