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Renaissance vs Nyuki — Ligue 1 2019

Renaissance
Renaissance
FT
3 – 0
Nyuki
Nyuki
10/9/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Renaissance70%
×Draw19%
Nyuki12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance
2.19
Nyuki
0.77

Renaissance creates 184% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 9 away

creates per match

Renaissance
1.04
Nyuki
0.22

allows per match

Renaissance
1.31
Nyuki
3.33

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par
Nyuki+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

Nyuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw
88%
Renaissance or Nyuki
81%
Draw or Nyuki
30%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+
45%
Nyuki wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals
89%
Renaissance 2+ goals
64%
Renaissance 3+ goals
37%
Nyuki 1+ goals
54%
Nyuki 2+ goals
18%
Nyuki 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)
85%
Nyuki (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 78 matches

Nyuki away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.04 + Nyuki defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.19

Nyuki attack 0.22 + Renaissance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Renaissance scores more
70%
level
19%
Nyuki scores more
12%

Renaissance at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Renaissance 3–0 Nyuki

Renaissance beat Nyuki 3-0 in Ligue 1 on October 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.