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Renaissance vs New Star — Elite One 2019

Renaissance
Renaissance
FT
2 – 1
New Star
New Star
6/2/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 22Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Renaissance49%
×Draw29%
New Star22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance
1.31
New Star
0.77

Renaissance creates 70% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Renaissance
1.00
New Star
0.64

allows per match

Renaissance
0.90
New Star
1.61

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw
78%
Renaissance or New Star
71%
Draw or New Star
51%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+
23%
New Star wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals
73%
Renaissance 2+ goals
38%
Renaissance 3+ goals
14%
New Star 1+ goals
54%
New Star 2+ goals
18%
New Star 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)
69%
New Star (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

New Star away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.00 + New Star defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

New Star attack 0.64 + Renaissance defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Renaissance scores more
49%
level
29%
New Star scores more
22%

Renaissance at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance vs New Star

Renaissance beat New Star 2-1 in Elite One on June 2, 2022.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.