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Renaissance vs Lubumbashi Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Renaissance
Renaissance
CANC
13:03
Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
6/20/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Renaissance41%
×Draw28%
Lubumbashi Sport31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance
1.25
Lubumbashi Sport
1.04

Renaissance creates 20% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 85 away

creates per match

Renaissance
1.04
Lubumbashi Sport
0.76

allows per match

Renaissance
1.31
Lubumbashi Sport
1.45

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par
Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw
69%
Renaissance or Lubumbashi Sport
72%
Draw or Lubumbashi Sport
59%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+
18%
Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals
71%
Renaissance 2+ goals
36%
Renaissance 3+ goals
13%
Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
65%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
28%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)
57%
Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 78 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.04 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + Renaissance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Renaissance scores more
41%
level
28%
Lubumbashi Sport scores more
31%

Renaissance at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Renaissance face Lubumbashi Sport (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with Renaissance hosting Lubumbashi Sport. Match starts June 20, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Renaissance host Lubumbashi Sport at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.