Renaissance 0–1 Fovu Club: Result & Stats

Renaissance

FT

0 – 1

Fovu Club

5/30/2022

Elite One · Round 21Stade Omnisport de Limbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Renaissance38%

×Draw30%

Fovu Club32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenaissanceExpected goals in this matchFovu Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.98

Renaissance

1.11

Fovu Club

0.98

Renaissance creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 67 away

1.00

creates per match

1.06

0.90

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Renaissance

1.00

Fovu Club

1.06

allows per match

Renaissance

0.90

Fovu Club

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par

Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

Fovu Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw

68%

Renaissance or Fovu Club

70%

Draw or Fovu Club

62%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+

16%

Fovu Club wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals

67%

Renaissance 2+ goals

30%

Renaissance 3+ goals

10%

Fovu Club 1+ goals

62%

Fovu Club 2+ goals

26%

Fovu Club 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)

55%

Fovu Club (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.00 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + Renaissance defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Renaissance scores more

38%

level

30%

Fovu Club scores more

32%

Renaissance at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff