Renaissance 1–1 Cotonsport: Result & Stats

Renaissance

FT

1 – 1

Cotonsport

3/27/2022

Elite One · Round 4Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Renaissance32%

×Draw31%

Cotonsport36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenaissanceExpected goals in this matchCotonsport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.01

Renaissance

0.94

Cotonsport

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 102 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

0.90

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Renaissance

1.00

Cotonsport

1.11

allows per match

Renaissance

0.90

Cotonsport

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par

Cotonsport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

Cotonsport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw

64%

Renaissance or Cotonsport

69%

Draw or Cotonsport

68%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+

12%

Cotonsport wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals

61%

Renaissance 2+ goals

24%

Renaissance 3+ goals

7%

Cotonsport 1+ goals

64%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

27%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)

47%

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Cotonsport away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.00 + Cotonsport defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Cotonsport attack 1.11 + Renaissance defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Renaissance scores more

32%

level

31%

Cotonsport scores more

36%

Cotonsport at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff