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Renaissance vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Renaissance
Renaissance
FT
4 – 1
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
2/17/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Renaissance47%
×Draw26%
Bukavu Dawa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance
1.50
Bukavu Dawa
1.06

Renaissance creates 42% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 27 away

creates per match

Renaissance
1.04
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Renaissance
1.31
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw
73%
Renaissance or Bukavu Dawa
74%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
53%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+
24%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals
78%
Renaissance 2+ goals
44%
Renaissance 3+ goals
19%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
65%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
29%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)
64%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 78 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.04 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Renaissance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Renaissance scores more
47%
level
26%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
27%

Renaissance at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Renaissance 4 – 1 Bukavu Dawa

Renaissance beat Bukavu Dawa 4-1 in Ligue 1 on February 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.