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Renaissance vs Aigle Royal — Elite One 2019

Renaissance
Renaissance
FT
1 – 0
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
3/25/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 18Stade Municipal Fotso Victor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Renaissance43%
×Draw29%
Aigle Royal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance
1.21
Aigle Royal
0.89

Renaissance creates 36% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 38 away

creates per match

Renaissance
1.00
Aigle Royal
0.87

allows per match

Renaissance
0.90
Aigle Royal
1.42

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw
73%
Renaissance or Aigle Royal
71%
Draw or Aigle Royal
57%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+
19%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals
70%
Renaissance 2+ goals
34%
Renaissance 3+ goals
12%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
59%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
22%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)
62%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.00 + Aigle Royal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Aigle Royal attack 0.87 + Renaissance defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Renaissance scores more
43%
level
29%
Aigle Royal scores more
27%

Renaissance at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance vs Aigle Royal

Renaissance beat Aigle Royal 1-0 in Elite One on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Fotso Victor in Bandjoun.