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Renaissance Berkane vs Rivers United — CAF Champions League 2019

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rivers United
Rivers United
2/14/2026CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Round 6Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Renaissance Berkane75%
×Draw20%
Rivers United5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.77
Rivers United
0.27

Renaissance Berkane creates 556% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.86
Rivers United
0.11

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.43
Rivers United
1.67

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Rivers United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–14%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
95%
Renaissance Berkane or Rivers United
80%
Draw or Rivers United
25%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
46%
Rivers United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
83%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
53%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
26%
Rivers United 1+ goals
24%
Rivers United 2+ goals
3%
Rivers United 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
94%
Rivers United (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.86 + Rivers United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rivers United attack 0.11 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
75%
level
20%
Rivers United scores more
5%

Renaissance Berkane at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs Rivers United

Renaissance Berkane beat Rivers United 3-0 in CAF Champions League on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.