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Renaissance Berkane vs Riadi Salmi — Botola Pro 2025

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
4/4/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 21Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Renaissance Berkane50%
×Draw26%
Riadi Salmi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.49
Riadi Salmi
0.95

Renaissance Berkane creates 57% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 61 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.54
Riadi Salmi
0.97

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.94
Riadi Salmi
1.44

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Riadi Salmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
76%
Renaissance Berkane or Riadi Salmi
74%
Draw or Riadi Salmi
50%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
25%
Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
77%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
44%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
19%
Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
61%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
25%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
67%
Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 120 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.54 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.49

Riadi Salmi attack 0.97 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
50%
level
26%
Riadi Salmi scores more
24%

Renaissance Berkane at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs Riadi Salmi

Riadi Salmi beat Renaissance Berkane 1-0 in Botola Pro on April 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.