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Renaissance Berkane vs Hassania Agadir — Botola Pro 2025

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
3/4/2026Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 9Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Renaissance Berkane48%
×Draw28%
Hassania Agadir24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.35
Hassania Agadir
0.86

Renaissance Berkane creates 57% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 121 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.54
Hassania Agadir
0.79

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.94
Hassania Agadir
1.17

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Hassania Agadir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
76%
Renaissance Berkane or Hassania Agadir
72%
Draw or Hassania Agadir
52%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
23%
Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
74%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
39%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
15%
Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
58%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
21%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
67%
Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 120 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.17 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.54 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hassania Agadir attack 0.79 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
48%
level
28%
Hassania Agadir scores more
24%

Renaissance Berkane at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Renaissance Berkane 2–1 Hassania Agadir

Renaissance Berkane beat Hassania Agadir 2-1 in Botola Pro on March 4, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.