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Renaissance Berkane vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola Pro 2025

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
FT
2 – 0
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
2/27/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 19Stade Municipal de Berkane (Berkane)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Renaissance Berkane61%
×Draw23%
Chabab RIF Hoceima15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.73
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.73

Renaissance Berkane creates 137% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.54
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.53

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.94
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.93

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
85%
Renaissance Berkane or Chabab RIF Hoceima
77%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
39%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
35%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
82%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
52%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
25%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
52%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
17%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
80%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 120 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.54 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.73

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
61%
level
23%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
15%

Renaissance Berkane at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs Chabab RIF Hoceima

Renaissance Berkane beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 2-0 in Botola Pro on February 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane (Berkane).