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Remo vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Remo
Remo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
Guilherme Romao 13'
9/20/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 27Estadio Evandro Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Remo40%
×Draw31%
Atletico Goianiense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo
1.10
Atletico Goianiense
0.90

Remo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 71 away

creates per match

Remo
0.97
Atletico Goianiense
1.03

allows per match

Remo
0.76
Atletico Goianiense
1.24

finishing

Remo+0.00on par
Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo ↓

Atletico Goianiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Remo or draw
71%
Remo or Atletico Goianiense
69%
Draw or Atletico Goianiense
60%

Winning margin

Remo wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Remo 1+ goals
67%
Remo 2+ goals
30%
Remo 3+ goals
10%
Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
59%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
23%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Remo (draw refunded)
58%
Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo attack 0.97 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.03 + Remo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Remo scores more
40%
level
31%
Atletico Goianiense scores more
29%

Remo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Remo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
P. VitorAtletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense · G
7.7

Match Events

13'
Guilherme Romao
22'
Pedro Rocha
29'
Nathan← Regis
38'
Jaderson
41'
Kauan Rodrigues
41'
Ronald
46'
A. F. Rodriguez Armoa← Savio
46'
Dudu Marques← Kauan Rodrigues
46'
Jean Dias← Talisson
54'
P. Tachtsidis← Jaderson
55'
Nathan
64'
Guilherme Romão
68'
Pedro Henrique← Guilherme Romao
69'
Marcelinho← Nathan
69'
Eduardo Melo← Marrony
69'
Kelvin← F. Martinez
82'
Radsley← Yuri Alves
90+2'
Radsley

Possession

60%Remo

Shots

12Remo

Pass accuracy

53%Remo

Statistics

RemoAtletico
Overview
60%Possession40%
12Total Shots13
3Corners5
15Fouls20
Shots
12Total Shots13
3On Target2
7Off Target7
2Blocked4
5Inside Box8
7Outside Box5
Passing
60%Possession40%
388Total Passes257
318Accurate Passes185
82%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls20
3Yellow Cards4
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Remo vs Atletico Goianiense

Atletico Goianiense beat Remo 1-0 in Serie B on September 20, 2025.

Goals: Guilherme Romao (13').

Remo controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Evandro Almeida in Belem.