Remo 2–0 Atlético Acreano: Result & Stats | Serie C

Remo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Acreano

Gustavinho 28'

Marcão 18'

5/26/2019

Serie C · Round 5Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença (Belém, Pará)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Remo63%

×Draw23%

Atlético Acreano13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RemoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Acreano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.63

Remo

1.71

Atlético Acreano

0.63

Remo creates 171% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 17 away

1.30

creates per match

0.53

0.73

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Remo

1.30

Atlético Acreano

0.53

allows per match

Remo

0.73

Atlético Acreano

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Remo+0.00on par

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo ↓

Atlético Acreano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Remo or draw

87%

Remo or Atlético Acreano

77%

Draw or Atlético Acreano

37%

Winning margin

Remo wins by 2+

36%

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Remo 1+ goals

82%

Remo 2+ goals

51%

Remo 3+ goals

24%

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

47%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

13%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Remo (draw refunded)

83%

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Atlético Acreano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo attack 1.30 + Atlético Acreano defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.71

Atlético Acreano attack 0.53 + Remo defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Remo scores more

63%

level

23%

Atlético Acreano scores more

13%

Remo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Remo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Marcão

28'

Gustavinho

33'

Daniel Vançan← Ronaell

46'

Felipe← Marquinhos

57'

Bruno← Diogo

62'

Guilherme Garré← Douglas Packer

72'

Tragodara← Marcilio

76'

Alex Sandro← Emerson Carioca

Remo

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Márcio Fernandes

33'▲Daniel Vançan←▼Ronaell

62'▲Guilherme Garré←▼Douglas Packer

76'▲Alex Sandro←▼Emerson Carioca

Remo substitutes

VançanGarréSandroBalaDedecoDjalmaCardosoLailsonTufaRobsonThiagoZotti

Manager: Alvaro

46'▲Felipe←▼Marquinhos

57'▲Bruno←▼Diogo

72'▲Tragodara←▼Marcilio

Atlético Acreano substitutes

FelipeBrunoTragodaraMillerDouglasDouglasMendesLucasMatheusGeovaniJoão

Serie C: Remo 2–0 Atlético Acreano

Remo beat Atlético Acreano 2-0 in Serie C on May 26, 2019.

Goals: Marcão (18'), Gustavinho (28').

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença (Belém, Pará).

Remo vs Atlético Acreano — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Remo 2–0 Atlético Acreano