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Remo Stars vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Remo Stars
Remo Stars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
1/7/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 17Remo Stars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Remo Stars64%
×Draw25%
Sunshine Stars11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo Stars
1.52
Sunshine Stars
0.45

Remo Stars creates 238% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 110 away

creates per match

Remo Stars
1.59
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Remo Stars
0.43
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Remo Stars+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo Stars ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Remo Stars or draw
89%
Remo Stars or Sunshine Stars
75%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
36%

Winning margin

Remo Stars wins by 2+
35%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Remo Stars 1+ goals
78%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
45%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
20%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
36%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
8%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Remo Stars (draw refunded)
86%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo Stars at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.43 · 98 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo Stars attack 1.59 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Remo Stars defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Remo Stars scores more
64%
level
25%
Sunshine Stars scores more
11%

Remo Stars at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Remo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Remo Stars 2–0 Sunshine Stars

Remo Stars beat Sunshine Stars 2-0 in NPFL on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Remo Stars Stadium in Ikenne.