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Remo Stars vs Sporting Lagos — NPFL 2019

Remo Stars
Remo Stars
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
10/22/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 4Remo Stars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Remo Stars67%
×Draw24%
Sporting Lagos9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo Stars
1.61
Sporting Lagos
0.42

Remo Stars creates 283% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 19 away

creates per match

Remo Stars
1.59
Sporting Lagos
0.42

allows per match

Remo Stars
0.43
Sporting Lagos
1.63

finishing

Remo Stars+0.00on par
Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo Stars ↓

Sporting Lagos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Remo Stars or draw
91%
Remo Stars or Sporting Lagos
76%
Draw or Sporting Lagos
33%

Winning margin

Remo Stars wins by 2+
38%
Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Remo Stars 1+ goals
80%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
48%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
22%
Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
34%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
7%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Remo Stars (draw refunded)
88%
Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo Stars at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.43 · 98 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo Stars attack 1.59 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Remo Stars defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Remo Stars scores more
67%
level
24%
Sporting Lagos scores more
9%

Remo Stars at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Remo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Remo Stars vs Sporting Lagos

Remo Stars beat Sporting Lagos 2-1 in NPFL on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Remo Stars Stadium in Ikenne.