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Remo Stars vs Nasarawa United — NPFL 2019

Remo Stars
Remo Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
3/26/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 10Remo Stars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Remo Stars62%
×Draw25%
Nasarawa United13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo Stars
1.57
Nasarawa United
0.56

Remo Stars creates 180% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 108 away

creates per match

Remo Stars
1.59
Nasarawa United
0.69

allows per match

Remo Stars
0.43
Nasarawa United
1.55

finishing

Remo Stars+0.00on par
Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo Stars ↓

Nasarawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Remo Stars or draw
87%
Remo Stars or Nasarawa United
75%
Draw or Nasarawa United
38%

Winning margin

Remo Stars wins by 2+
34%
Nasarawa United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Remo Stars 1+ goals
79%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
46%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
21%
Nasarawa United 1+ goals
43%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
11%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Remo Stars (draw refunded)
83%
Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo Stars at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.43 · 98 matches

Nasarawa United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo Stars attack 1.59 + Nasarawa United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

Nasarawa United attack 0.69 + Remo Stars defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Remo Stars scores more
62%
level
25%
Nasarawa United scores more
13%

Remo Stars at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Remo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Remo Stars 1–0 Nasarawa United

Remo Stars beat Nasarawa United 1-0 in NPFL on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Remo Stars Stadium in Ikenne.