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Remo Stars vs Katsina United — NPFL 2019

Remo Stars
Remo Stars
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Katsina United
Katsina United
6/23/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 38Remo Stars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Remo Stars68%
×Draw24%
Katsina United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo Stars
1.56
Katsina United
0.36

Remo Stars creates 333% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 118 away

creates per match

Remo Stars
1.59
Katsina United
0.29

allows per match

Remo Stars
0.43
Katsina United
1.52

finishing

Remo Stars+0.00on par
Katsina United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo Stars ↓

Katsina United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Remo Stars or draw
92%
Remo Stars or Katsina United
76%
Draw or Katsina United
32%

Winning margin

Remo Stars wins by 2+
38%
Katsina United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Remo Stars 1+ goals
79%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
46%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
21%
Katsina United 1+ goals
30%
Katsina United 2+ goals
5%
Katsina United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Remo Stars (draw refunded)
89%
Katsina United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo Stars at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.43 · 98 matches

Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo Stars attack 1.59 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Katsina United attack 0.29 + Remo Stars defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Remo Stars scores more
68%
level
24%
Katsina United scores more
8%

Remo Stars at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Remo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Remo Stars vs Katsina United

Remo Stars beat Katsina United 2-1 in NPFL on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Remo Stars Stadium in Ikenne.