Remo Stars 2–1 Enugu Rangers: Result & Stats | NPFL

Remo Stars

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Enugu Rangers

9/29/2024

NPFL · Round 4Remo Stars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Remo Stars56%

×Draw28%

Enugu Rangers16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Remo StarsExpected goals in this matchEnugu Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.57

Remo Stars

1.36

Enugu Rangers

0.57

Remo Stars creates 139% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 130 away

1.59

creates per match

0.71

0.43

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Remo Stars

1.59

Enugu Rangers

0.71

allows per match

Remo Stars

0.43

Enugu Rangers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Remo Stars+0.00on par

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo Stars ↓

Enugu Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Remo Stars or draw

84%

Remo Stars or Enugu Rangers

72%

Draw or Enugu Rangers

44%

Winning margin

Remo Stars wins by 2+

28%

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Remo Stars 1+ goals

74%

Remo Stars 2+ goals

39%

Remo Stars 3+ goals

16%

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals

43%

Enugu Rangers 2+ goals

11%

Enugu Rangers 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Remo Stars (draw refunded)

78%

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo Stars at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.43 · 98 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo Stars attack 1.59 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Remo Stars defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Remo Stars scores more

56%

level

28%

Enugu Rangers scores more

16%

Remo Stars at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Remo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff