Remo Stars 0–0 Doma United: Result & Stats | NPFL

Remo Stars

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Doma United

11/25/2023

NPFL · Round 10Remo Stars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Remo Stars67%

×Draw23%

Doma United10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Remo StarsExpected goals in this matchDoma United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.45

Remo Stars

1.64

Doma United

0.45

Remo Stars creates 264% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 28 away

1.59

creates per match

0.46

0.43

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Remo Stars

1.59

Doma United

0.46

allows per match

Remo Stars

0.43

Doma United

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Remo Stars+0.00on par

Doma United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo Stars ↓

Doma United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Remo Stars or draw

90%

Remo Stars or Doma United

77%

Draw or Doma United

33%

Winning margin

Remo Stars wins by 2+

38%

Doma United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Remo Stars 1+ goals

81%

Remo Stars 2+ goals

49%

Remo Stars 3+ goals

23%

Doma United 1+ goals

36%

Doma United 2+ goals

8%

Doma United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Remo Stars (draw refunded)

87%

Doma United (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo Stars at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.43 · 98 matches

Doma United away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo Stars attack 1.59 + Doma United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Doma United attack 0.46 + Remo Stars defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Remo Stars scores more

67%

level

23%

Doma United scores more

10%

Remo Stars at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Remo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff