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Remo Stars vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Remo Stars
Remo Stars
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Akwa United
Akwa United
4/6/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 29Remo Stars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Remo Stars59%
×Draw27%
Akwa United14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo Stars
1.44
Akwa United
0.55

Remo Stars creates 162% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 111 away

creates per match

Remo Stars
1.59
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Remo Stars
0.43
Akwa United
1.28

finishing

Remo Stars+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo Stars ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Remo Stars or draw
86%
Remo Stars or Akwa United
73%
Draw or Akwa United
41%

Winning margin

Remo Stars wins by 2+
30%
Akwa United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Remo Stars 1+ goals
76%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
42%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
18%
Akwa United 1+ goals
42%
Akwa United 2+ goals
11%
Akwa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Remo Stars (draw refunded)
81%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo Stars at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.43 · 98 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo Stars attack 1.59 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Remo Stars defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Remo Stars scores more
59%
level
27%
Akwa United scores more
14%

Remo Stars at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Remo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Remo Stars vs Akwa United

Remo Stars beat Akwa United 2-1 in NPFL on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Remo Stars Stadium in Ikenne.