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Rembas vs Župa — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Rembas
Rembas
FT
1 – 1
Župa
Župa
11/15/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Stadion Rembas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rembas60%
×Draw20%
Župa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rembas
2.19
Župa
1.20

Rembas creates 83% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rembas
1.79
Župa
1.26

allows per match

Rembas
1.14
Župa
2.58

finishing

Rembas+0.00on par
Župa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rembas ↓

Župa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rembas or draw
80%
Rembas or Župa
80%
Draw or Župa
40%

Winning margin

Rembas wins by 2+
37%
Župa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rembas 1+ goals
89%
Rembas 2+ goals
64%
Rembas 3+ goals
37%
Župa 1+ goals
70%
Župa 2+ goals
34%
Župa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rembas (draw refunded)
75%
Župa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rembas at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 57 matches

Župa away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rembas attack 1.79 + Župa defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.19

Župa attack 1.26 + Rembas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rembas scores more
60%
level
20%
Župa scores more
20%

Rembas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rembas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Rembas 1–1 Župa

Rembas and Župa drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rembas in Resavica.