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Rembas vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Rembas
Rembas
FT
5 – 0
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
8/23/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion Rembas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Rembas55%
×Draw22%
Toplicanin Prokuplje22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rembas
1.90
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.12

Rembas creates 70% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 42 away

creates per match

Rembas
1.79
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Rembas
1.14
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Rembas+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rembas ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rembas or draw
78%
Rembas or Toplicanin Prokuplje
78%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
45%

Winning margin

Rembas wins by 2+
32%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rembas 1+ goals
85%
Rembas 2+ goals
56%
Rembas 3+ goals
29%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
67%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
31%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rembas (draw refunded)
71%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rembas at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 57 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rembas attack 1.79 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Rembas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rembas scores more
55%
level
22%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
22%

Rembas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rembas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rembas vs Toplicanin Prokuplje

Rembas beat Toplicanin Prokuplje 5-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rembas in Resavica.