Rembas 2–1 Timočanin: Result & Stats

Rembas

FT

2 – 1

Timočanin

10/25/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 14Stadion Rembas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Rembas52%

×Draw24%

Timočanin24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RembasExpected goals in this matchTimočanin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.09

Rembas

1.73

Timočanin

1.09

Rembas creates 59% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 73 away

1.79

creates per match

1.05

1.14

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Rembas

1.79

Timočanin

1.05

allows per match

Rembas

1.14

Timočanin

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rembas+0.00on par

Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rembas ↓

Timočanin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rembas or draw

76%

Rembas or Timočanin

76%

Draw or Timočanin

48%

Winning margin

Rembas wins by 2+

29%

Timočanin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rembas 1+ goals

82%

Rembas 2+ goals

52%

Rembas 3+ goals

25%

Timočanin 1+ goals

66%

Timočanin 2+ goals

30%

Timočanin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rembas (draw refunded)

69%

Timočanin (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rembas at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 57 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rembas attack 1.79 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Rembas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rembas scores more

52%

level

24%

Timočanin scores more

24%

Rembas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rembas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff