Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rembas vs Radan — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Rembas
Rembas
FT
2 – 0
Radan
Radan
5/16/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 34Stadion Rembas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rembas44%
×Draw24%
Radan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rembas
1.64
Radan
1.35

Rembas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 27 away

creates per match

Rembas
1.79
Radan
1.56

allows per match

Rembas
1.14
Radan
1.48

finishing

Rembas+0.00on par
Radan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rembas ↓

Radan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rembas or draw
68%
Rembas or Radan
76%
Draw or Radan
56%

Winning margin

Rembas wins by 2+
23%
Radan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rembas 1+ goals
81%
Rembas 2+ goals
49%
Rembas 3+ goals
23%
Radan 1+ goals
74%
Radan 2+ goals
39%
Radan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rembas (draw refunded)
58%
Radan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rembas at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 57 matches

Radan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rembas attack 1.79 + Radan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.64

Radan attack 1.56 + Rembas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rembas scores more
44%
level
24%
Radan scores more
32%

Rembas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rembas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rembas vs Radan

Rembas beat Radan 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Rembas in Resavica.