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Rembas vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Rembas
Rembas
FT
3 – 0
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
5/30/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 37Stadion Rembas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Rembas77%
×Draw13%
Moravac Mrštane9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rembas
2.98
Moravac Mrštane
0.96

Rembas creates 210% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 28 away

creates per match

Rembas
1.79
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Rembas
1.14
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Rembas+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rembas ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Rembas or draw
91%
Rembas or Moravac Mrštane
87%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
23%

Winning margin

Rembas wins by 2+
57%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rembas 1+ goals
95%
Rembas 2+ goals
79%
Rembas 3+ goals
56%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
62%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
25%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rembas (draw refunded)
89%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rembas at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 57 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rembas attack 1.79 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.98

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Rembas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Rembas scores more
77%
level
13%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
9%

Rembas at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Rembas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Rembas 3–0 Moravac Mrštane

Rembas beat Moravac Mrštane 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Rembas in Resavica.