Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W vs Medyk Konin W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
FT
1 – 0
Medyk Konin W
Medyk Konin W
8/20/2023Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 1Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W56%
×Draw22%
Medyk Konin W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
2.01
Medyk Konin W
1.18

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
0.94
Medyk Konin W
0.55

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.81
Medyk Konin W
3.09

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W+0.00on par
Medyk Konin W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W ↓

Medyk Konin W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W or draw
78%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W or Medyk Konin W
78%
Draw or Medyk Konin W
44%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W wins by 2+
33%
Medyk Konin W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1+ goals
87%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 2+ goals
59%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 3+ goals
32%
Medyk Konin W 1+ goals
69%
Medyk Konin W 2+ goals
33%
Medyk Konin W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W (draw refunded)
72%
Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

Medyk Konin W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W attack 0.94 + Medyk Konin W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.01

Medyk Konin W attack 0.55 + Rekord Bielsko-Biala W defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W scores more
56%
level
22%
Medyk Konin W scores more
22%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rekord Bielsko-Biala W vs Medyk Konin W

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W beat Medyk Konin W 1-0 in Ekstraliga Women on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion BTS Rekord in Bielsko-Biała.