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Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
6/1/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 33Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała39%
×Draw25%
Wisła Puławy37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.49
Wisła Puławy
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.15
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.38
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw
63%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Wisła Puławy
75%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
61%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
19%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
77%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
44%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
19%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
76%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
42%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
51%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.15 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.49

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
39%
level
25%
Wisła Puławy scores more
37%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2–0 Wisła Puławy

Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Wisła Puławy 2-0 in II Liga - East on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion BTS Rekord in Bielsko-Biała.