Rekord Bielsko-Biała 4–2 Wisła Kraków II

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Wisła Kraków II

7/8/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała72%

×Draw16%

Wisła Kraków II13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchWisła Kraków II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.10

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.77

Wisła Kraków II

1.10

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 152% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.20

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.20

Wisła Kraków II

1.00

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.20

Wisła Kraków II

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Wisła Kraków II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Wisła Kraków II →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

87%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Wisła Kraków II

84%

Draw or Wisła Kraków II

28%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

51%

Wisła Kraków II wins by 2+

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

94%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

76%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

51%

Wisła Kraków II 1+ goals

67%

Wisła Kraków II 2+ goals

30%

Wisła Kraków II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

85%

Wisła Kraków II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Wisła Kraków II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.20 + Wisła Kraków II defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Wisła Kraków II attack 1.00 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

72%

level

16%

Wisła Kraków II scores more

13%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff