Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2–3 Resovia Rzeszów

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Resovia Rzeszów

J. Ciućka 69'

D. Świderski 45+1'

M. Urynowicz 90+4'

M. Górski 89'

F. Mikrut 78'

8/17/2024

II Liga - East · Round 5Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała35%

×Draw27%

Resovia Rzeszów38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchResovia Rzeszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.31

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.25

Resovia Rzeszów

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 53 away

1.15

creates per match

1.25

1.38

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.15

Resovia Rzeszów

1.25

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.38

Resovia Rzeszów

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

62%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Resovia Rzeszów

73%

Draw or Resovia Rzeszów

65%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

15%

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

71%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

36%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

13%

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

73%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

38%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

48%

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.15 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.25 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

35%

level

27%

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

38%

Resovia Rzeszów at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

D. Pavlas← B. Eizenchart

22'

M. Sliwka

37'

P. Wyroba

45+1'

D. Świderski

46'

J. Kempny← M. Śliwka

62'

63'

F. Mikrut← F. Zawadzki

63'

K. Mazek← G. Jaroch

65'

K. Szymocha

65'

J. Ciućka← D. Kamiński

65'

Z. Wojciechowski← M. Klichowicz

69'

J. Ciućka

72'

T. Nowak

74'

J. Ryś← T. Nowak

78'

F. Mikrut

80'

D. Pieniążek← K. Rębisz

80'

R. Kanach← B. Wasiluk

82'

85'

89'

90'

90+4'

Rekord

Resovia

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Klacza

46'▲J. Kempny←▼M. Śliwka

65'▲J. Ciućka←▼D. Kamiński

65'▲Z. Wojciechowski←▼M. Klichowicz

74'▲J. Ryś←▼T. Nowak

90'▲H. Żyrek←▼P. Wyroba

Rekord Bielsko-Biała substitutes

KempnyCiućkaWojciechowskiRyśŻyrek

Manager: R. Ulatowski

6'▲D. Pavlas←▼B. Eizenchart

63'▲F. Mikrut←▼F. Zawadzki

63'▲K. Mazek←▼G. Jaroch

80'▲D. Pieniążek←▼K. Rębisz

80'▲R. Kanach←▼B. Wasiluk

Resovia Rzeszów substitutes

PavlasMikrutMazekPieniążekKanach