Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2–2 Olimpia Grudziądz

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Olimpia Grudziądz

D. Swiderski 77' (pen)

J. Rys 50'

M. Mas 13'

T. Kaczmarek 5'

10/25/2025

II Liga - East · Round 14Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała38%

×Draw26%

Olimpia Grudziądz36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Grudziądz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.32

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.36

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

1.15

creates per match

1.26

1.38

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.15

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.26

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.38

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

64%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Olimpia Grudziądz

74%

Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz

62%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

17%

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

74%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

39%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

16%

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

73%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

38%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

51%

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.15 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.36

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

38%

level

26%

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

36%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

0'

5'

13'

32'

44'

50'

56'

65'

66'

66'

69'

69'

L. Poznanski← H. Zyrek

69'

M. Tekieli← W. Laski

70'

T. Kaczmarek

77'

K. Fietz← T. Kaczmarek

77'

D. SwiderskiPenalty

81'

P. Wyroba← J. Rys

81'

M. Klichowicz← J. Ciucka

90+2'

K. Cichon

90'

K. Kasprzak← D. Swiderski

Rekord

Olimpia

71

93

25

10

72

A

77

5

26

7

⚽

▼

Kaczmarek

18

▼

Jarzec

9

⚽

▼

39

16

8

3

22

▼

Zyrek

6

Scislak

21

⚽

▼

Rys

28

▼

Ciucka

20

Sliwka

11

⚽

▼

Swiderski

7

▼

Laski

Manager: Dariusz Rucki

69'▲L. Poznanski←▼H. Zyrek

69'▲M. Tekieli←▼W. Laski

81'▲P. Wyroba←▼J. Rys

81'▲M. Klichowicz←▼J. Ciucka

90'▲K. Kasprzak←▼D. Swiderski

Rekord Bielsko-Biała substitutes

29Zolneczko23Wrona24PoznanskiKempny75Wyroba91Klichowicz77Sapinski27Tekieli19Kasprzak

Manager: Artur Kosznicki

66'▲L. Moneta←▼K. Jarzec

66'▲M. Pawlowski←▼M. Mas

77'▲K. Fietz←▼T. Kaczmarek

Olimpia Grudziądz substitutes

31Hallmann16Koncewicz-Zylka11Krocz13Moneta42Zablonski3Klimczak69PawlowskiFietz

Match Recap: Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz

Rekord Bielsko-Biała and Olimpia Grudziądz drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on October 25, 2025.

Goals: T. Kaczmarek (5'), M. Mas (13'), J. Rys (50'), D. Swiderski (77' pen).

The match was played at Stadion BTS Rekord.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz