Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2–1 Kalisz: Result & Stats

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kalisz

D. Świderski 90+1'

M. Klichowicz 23'

P. Banasiak 51'

4/5/2025

II Liga - East · Round 25Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała35%

×Draw27%

Kalisz38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchKalisz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.27

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.22

Kalisz

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 104 away

1.15

creates per match

1.17

1.38

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.15

Kalisz

1.17

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.38

Kalisz

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Kalisz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Kalisz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

62%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Kalisz

73%

Draw or Kalisz

65%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

15%

Kalisz wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

70%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

34%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

12%

Kalisz 1+ goals

72%

Kalisz 2+ goals

36%

Kalisz 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

48%

Kalisz (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Kalisz away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.29 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.15 + Kalisz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Kalisz attack 1.17 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

35%

level

27%

Kalisz scores more

38%

Kalisz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kalisz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

M. Klichowicz

51'

P. Banasiak

53'

63'

K. Toporkiewicz← Néstor Gordillo

68'

W. Maroszek← P. Banasiak

73'

R. Maslovs← M. Pańkowski

73'

H. Żyrek← T. Walaszek

86'

M. Szymański← K. Flisiuk

86'

K. Skibicki← J. Głaz

90+3'

M. Bojdys← D. Świderski

90+3'

Z. Wojciechowski← M. Klichowicz

90+1'

D. Świderski

Rekord

Kalisz

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Klichowic

⚽

▼

Świderski

Ciućka

Manager: D. Rucki

73'▲R. Maslovs←▼M. Pańkowski

73'▲H. Żyrek←▼T. Walaszek

90+3'▲M. Bojdys←▼D. Świderski

90+3'▲Z. Wojciechowski←▼M. Klichowicz

Rekord Bielsko-Biała substitutes

MaslovsŻyrekBojdysWojciechowski

Manager: M. Woźniak

63'▲K. Toporkiewicz←▼Néstor Gordillo

68'▲W. Maroszek←▼P. Banasiak

86'▲M. Szymański←▼K. Flisiuk

86'▲K. Skibicki←▼J. Głaz

Kalisz substitutes

ToporkiewiczMaroszekSzymańskiSkibicki