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Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Jastrzębie — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
K. Zolna 44'
M. Biskup 13' (pen)
1/21/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała62%
×Draw21%
Jastrzębie16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.94
Jastrzębie
0.88

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 120% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
2.20
Jastrzębie
0.56

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.20
Jastrzębie
1.67

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par
Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Jastrzębie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw
84%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Jastrzębie
79%
Draw or Jastrzębie
38%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
37%
Jastrzębie wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
86%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
58%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
30%
Jastrzębie 1+ goals
59%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
22%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
79%
Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.20 + Jastrzębie defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Jastrzębie attack 0.56 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
62%
level
21%
Jastrzębie scores more
16%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. BiskupPenalty
44'
K. Zolna

Statistics

RekordJastrzębie
Overview
1Corners6

Friendlies Clubs: Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2–0 Jastrzębie

Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Jastrzębie 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 21, 2023.

Goals: M. Biskup (13' pen), K. Zolna (44').