Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2–1 Górnik Polkowice

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Górnik Polkowice

6/8/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała48%

×Draw23%

Górnik Polkowice29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.34

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.80

Górnik Polkowice

1.34

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

2.28

creates per match

1.55

1.14

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.28

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.14

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

71%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Górnik Polkowice

77%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

52%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

26%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

83%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

54%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

27%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

74%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

39%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

63%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.28 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.80

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

48%

level

23%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

29%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff