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Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
4/23/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała67%
×Draw18%
Gać Oława15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
2.42
Gać Oława
1.07

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 126% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
2.28
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.14
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw
85%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Gać Oława
82%
Draw or Gać Oława
33%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
44%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
91%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
69%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
43%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
66%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
29%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
81%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.28 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.42

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
67%
level
18%
Gać Oława scores more
15%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Gać Oława

Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Gać Oława 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion BTS Rekord in Bielsko-Biała.