Rekord Bielsko-Biała 0–1 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chojniczanka Chojnice

M. Kozina 35'

11/16/2024

II Liga - East · Round 18Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała32%

×Draw26%

Chojniczanka Chojnice42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchChojniczanka Chojnice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.42

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.19

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.42

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 87 away

1.15

creates per match

1.45

1.38

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.15

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.45

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.38

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

58%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Chojniczanka Chojnice

74%

Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice

68%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

13%

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

70%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

33%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

12%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

76%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

41%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

43%

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.15 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

32%

level

26%

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

42%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Klichowicz

35'

M. Kozina

38'

D. Kaminski

46'

J. Branecki← D. Kamiński

61'

T. Boczek

64'

H. Żyrek← Z. Wojciechowski

64'

J. Ciućka← P. Wyroba

64'

J. Ryś← M. Klichowicz

65'

A. Káčerík← V. Šabala

65'

D. Nowacki← M. Kozina

67'

D. Swiderski

80'

M. Tkocz← M. Stefaniak

86'

J. Zywicki← J. Romanik

Rekord

Chojniczanka

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Rucki

64'▲H. Żyrek←▼Z. Wojciechowski

64'▲J. Ciućka←▼P. Wyroba

64'▲J. Ryś←▼M. Klichowicz

Rekord Bielsko-Biała substitutes

ŻyrekCiućkaRyś

Manager: D. Nowak

46'▲J. Branecki←▼D. Kamiński

65'▲A. Káčerík←▼V. Šabala

65'▲D. Nowacki←▼M. Kozina

80'▲M. Tkocz←▼M. Stefaniak

86'▲J. Zywicki←▼J. Romanik

Chojniczanka Chojnice substitutes

BraneckiKáčeríkNowackiTkoczZywicki

Match Recap: Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Chojniczanka Chojnice

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1-0 in II Liga - East on November 16, 2024.

Goals: M. Kozina (35').

The match was played at Stadion BTS Rekord in Bielsko-Biała.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Chojniczanka Chojnice