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Rejiche vs US BEN Guerdane — Cup 2019

Rejiche
Rejiche
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
US BEN Guerdane
US BEN Guerdane
H. Mohamadi 45+1'
5/26/2021CupCup · 16th FinalsStade de Mahdia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rejiche45%
×Draw28%
US BEN Guerdane27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rejiche
1.29
US BEN Guerdane
0.94

Rejiche creates 37% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rejiche
1.00
US BEN Guerdane
1.14

allows per match

Rejiche
0.75
US BEN Guerdane
1.57

finishing

Rejiche+0.00on par
US BEN Guerdane+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rejiche ↓

US BEN Guerdane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rejiche or draw
73%
Rejiche or US BEN Guerdane
72%
Draw or US BEN Guerdane
55%

Winning margin

Rejiche wins by 2+
20%
US BEN Guerdane wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rejiche 1+ goals
72%
Rejiche 2+ goals
37%
Rejiche 3+ goals
14%
US BEN Guerdane 1+ goals
61%
US BEN Guerdane 2+ goals
24%
US BEN Guerdane 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rejiche (draw refunded)
62%
US BEN Guerdane (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rejiche at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

US BEN Guerdane away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rejiche attack 1.00 + US BEN Guerdane defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

US BEN Guerdane attack 1.14 + Rejiche defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rejiche scores more
45%
level
28%
US BEN Guerdane scores more
27%

Rejiche at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rejiche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
H. Mohamadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rejiche 0 – 1 US BEN Guerdane

US BEN Guerdane beat Rejiche 1-0 in Cup on May 26, 2021.

Goals: H. Mohamadi (45+1').

The match was played at Stade de Mahdia in Mahdia.