Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Reipas vs Viikingit — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Reipas
Reipas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viikingit
Viikingit
8/3/2019Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 14Kisapuiston tekonurmi (Lahti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Reipas47%
×Draw23%
Viikingit30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reipas
1.83
Viikingit
1.42

Reipas creates 29% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 22 away

creates per match

Reipas
2.07
Viikingit
1.55

allows per match

Reipas
1.28
Viikingit
1.59

finishing

Reipas+0.00on par
Viikingit+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reipas ↓

Viikingit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Reipas or draw
70%
Reipas or Viikingit
77%
Draw or Viikingit
53%

Winning margin

Reipas wins by 2+
26%
Viikingit wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reipas 1+ goals
84%
Reipas 2+ goals
54%
Reipas 3+ goals
28%
Viikingit 1+ goals
76%
Viikingit 2+ goals
41%
Viikingit 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Reipas (draw refunded)
61%
Viikingit (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reipas at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Viikingit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reipas attack 2.07 + Viikingit defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.83

Viikingit attack 1.55 + Reipas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Reipas scores more
47%
level
23%
Viikingit scores more
30%

Reipas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Reipas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reipas vs Viikingit

Reipas beat Viikingit 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Kisapuiston tekonurmi (Lahti).