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Reipas vs KuPS Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Reipas
Reipas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
7/9/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 8Lahden Kisapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Reipas55%
×Draw22%
KuPS Akatemia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reipas
1.99
KuPS Akatemia
1.23

Reipas creates 62% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 11 away

creates per match

Reipas
2.07
KuPS Akatemia
1.18

allows per match

Reipas
1.28
KuPS Akatemia
1.91

finishing

Reipas+0.00on par
KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reipas ↓

KuPS Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Reipas or draw
77%
Reipas or KuPS Akatemia
78%
Draw or KuPS Akatemia
45%

Winning margin

Reipas wins by 2+
32%
KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Reipas 1+ goals
86%
Reipas 2+ goals
59%
Reipas 3+ goals
32%
KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
71%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
35%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reipas (draw refunded)
70%
KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reipas at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

KuPS Akatemia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reipas attack 2.07 + KuPS Akatemia defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.99

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.18 + Reipas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Reipas scores more
55%
level
22%
KuPS Akatemia scores more
23%

Reipas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Reipas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Reipas 3–1 KuPS Akatemia

Reipas beat KuPS Akatemia 3-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Lahden Kisapuisto in Lahti.