Reipas 1–1 HIFK Helsinki: Result & Stats

Reipas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

HIFK Helsinki

E. Salmensuu 82'

A. Hypponen 55'

7/12/2026

Kakkonen - Lohko A · Group ALahden kisapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Reipas39%

×Draw24%

HIFK Helsinki37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReipasExpected goals in this matchHIFK Helsinki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.53

Reipas

1.59

HIFK Helsinki

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 9 away

2.07

creates per match

1.78

1.28

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Reipas

2.07

HIFK Helsinki

1.78

allows per match

Reipas

1.28

HIFK Helsinki

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reipas+0.00on par

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reipas ↓

HIFK Helsinki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Reipas or draw

63%

Reipas or HIFK Helsinki

76%

Draw or HIFK Helsinki

61%

Winning margin

Reipas wins by 2+

20%

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Reipas 1+ goals

80%

Reipas 2+ goals

47%

Reipas 3+ goals

21%

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals

78%

HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals

45%

HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Reipas (draw refunded)

52%

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reipas at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reipas attack 2.07 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.59

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.78 + Reipas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reipas scores more

39%

level

24%

HIFK Helsinki scores more

37%

Reipas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reipas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

45+3'

46'

55'

60'

60'

63'

63'

E. Kuparinen← E. Kuparinen

63'

E. Salmensuu← O. Helttunen

64'

E. Ndabawedje← J. Ojanen

81'

Erikson Carlos← A. Hypponen

82'

E. Salmensuu

87'

H. Nykanen← A. Paalanen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Reipas 1–1 HIFK Helsinki

Reipas and HIFK Helsinki drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 12, 2026.

Goals: A. Hypponen (55'), E. Salmensuu (82').

The match was played at Lahden kisapuisto in Lahti.

Reipas vs HIFK Helsinki — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Reipas 1–1 HIFK Helsinki