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Reipas vs Futura — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Reipas
Reipas
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Futura
Futura
7/27/2024Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 16Lahden Kisapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Reipas58%
×Draw20%
Futura21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reipas
2.21
Futura
1.27

Reipas creates 74% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 31 away

creates per match

Reipas
2.07
Futura
1.26

allows per match

Reipas
1.28
Futura
2.35

finishing

Reipas+0.00on par
Futura+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reipas ↓

Futura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Reipas or draw
79%
Reipas or Futura
80%
Draw or Futura
42%

Winning margin

Reipas wins by 2+
36%
Futura wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Reipas 1+ goals
89%
Reipas 2+ goals
65%
Reipas 3+ goals
38%
Futura 1+ goals
72%
Futura 2+ goals
36%
Futura 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Reipas (draw refunded)
73%
Futura (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reipas at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Futura away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reipas attack 2.07 + Futura defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.21

Futura attack 1.26 + Reipas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Reipas scores more
58%
level
20%
Futura scores more
21%

Reipas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Reipas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Reipas 2–3 Futura

Futura beat Reipas 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Lahden Kisapuisto in Lahti.