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Reims vs Laval — Ligue 2 2018

Reims
Reims
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Laval
Laval
A. Bojang 71'
M. Tchokounte 42' (OG)
K. Nakamura 30'
N. Pallois 17'
12/8/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Auguste-Delaune

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Reims51%
×Draw26%
Laval23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reims
1.52
Laval
0.92

Reims creates 65% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 97 away

creates per match

Reims
1.73
Laval
0.94

allows per match

Reims
0.90
Laval
1.30

finishing

Reims+0.00on par
Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Laval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Reims or draw
77%
Reims or Laval
74%
Draw or Laval
49%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+
26%
Laval wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals
78%
Reims 2+ goals
45%
Reims 3+ goals
20%
Laval 1+ goals
60%
Laval 2+ goals
23%
Laval 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)
69%
Laval (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Laval away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.73 + Laval defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Laval attack 0.94 + Reims defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Reims scores more
51%
level
26%
Laval scores more
23%

Reims at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
N. PalloisReimsReims · D
9.0

Match Events

17'
N. Pallois↳ A. Salama
30'
K. Nakamura↳ T. Diarra
42'
M. TchokounteOwn goal
48'
Sam Sanna
64'
H. Sekine← S. Akieme
65'
T. Teuma← A. Tia
65'
A. Bojang← A. Salama
66'
E. Clavreul← M. Tchokounte
66'
M. Sellouki← J. Maggiotti
70'
Abdoul Kone
71'
A. Bojang
75'
Elie← A. Kone
76'
T. Vargas← S. Sanna
76'
E. Montet← W. Benard
79'
N. Bassette← K. Nakamura
84'
Y. Tavares← T. Pellenard
86'
Mamadou Camara

Possession

64%Reims

Shots

11Reims

Pass accuracy

53%Reims

Statistics

ReimsLaval
Overview
64%Possession36%
11Total Shots3
5Corners2
14Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots3
5On Target0
3Off Target2
3Blocked1
5Inside Box2
6Outside Box1
Passing
64%Possession36%
705Total Passes386
642Accurate Passes315
91%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Ligue 2: Reims 4–0 Laval

Reims beat Laval 4-0 in Ligue 2 on December 8, 2025.

Goals: N. Pallois (17'), K. Nakamura (30'), M. Tchokounte (42' o.g.), A. Bojang (71').

Reims controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Reims.