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Reims Sainte-Anne vs Wasquehal — Coupe de France 2018

Reims Sainte-Anne
Reims Sainte-Anne
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Wasquehal
Wasquehal
11/20/2022Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade Robert Pirès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Reims Sainte-Anne38%
×Draw29%
Wasquehal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reims Sainte-Anne
1.17
Wasquehal
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Reims Sainte-Anne
1.09
Wasquehal
1.25

allows per match

Reims Sainte-Anne
0.91
Wasquehal
1.25

finishing

Reims Sainte-Anne+0.00on par
Wasquehal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims Sainte-Anne ↓

Wasquehal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Reims Sainte-Anne or draw
67%
Reims Sainte-Anne or Wasquehal
71%
Draw or Wasquehal
62%

Winning margin

Reims Sainte-Anne wins by 2+
16%
Wasquehal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reims Sainte-Anne 1+ goals
69%
Reims Sainte-Anne 2+ goals
33%
Reims Sainte-Anne 3+ goals
11%
Wasquehal 1+ goals
66%
Wasquehal 2+ goals
29%
Wasquehal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Reims Sainte-Anne (draw refunded)
53%
Wasquehal (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims Sainte-Anne at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Wasquehal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims Sainte-Anne attack 1.09 + Wasquehal defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Wasquehal attack 1.25 + Reims Sainte-Anne defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reims Sainte-Anne scores more
38%
level
29%
Wasquehal scores more
33%

Reims Sainte-Anne at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reims Sainte-Anne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Reims Sainte-Anne 3–0 Wasquehal

Reims Sainte-Anne beat Wasquehal 3-0 in Coupe de France on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Robert Pirès in Reims.