Reims Sainte-Anne 0–1 Reims: Result & Stats

Reims Sainte-Anne

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Reims

12/19/2021

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Auguste-Delaune II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Reims Sainte-Anne23%

×Draw25%

Reims52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reims Sainte-AnneExpected goals in this matchReims

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.64

Reims Sainte-Anne

1.01

Reims

1.64

Reims creates 62% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.09

creates per match

2.36

0.91

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Reims Sainte-Anne

1.09

Reims

2.36

allows per match

Reims Sainte-Anne

0.91

Reims

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims Sainte-Anne+0.00on par

Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims Sainte-Anne ↓

Reims →

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reims Sainte-Anne or draw

48%

Reims Sainte-Anne or Reims

75%

Draw or Reims

77%

Winning margin

Reims Sainte-Anne wins by 2+

Reims wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Reims Sainte-Anne 1+ goals

64%

Reims Sainte-Anne 2+ goals

27%

Reims Sainte-Anne 3+ goals

Reims 1+ goals

81%

Reims 2+ goals

49%

Reims 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Reims Sainte-Anne (draw refunded)

31%

Reims (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reims Sainte-Anne at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Reims away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reims Sainte-Anne attack 1.09 + Reims defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Reims attack 2.36 + Reims Sainte-Anne defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Reims Sainte-Anne scores more

23%

level

25%

Reims scores more

52%

Reims at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff