Reims Sainte-Anne 0–1 Montpellier: Result & Stats

Reims Sainte-Anne

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Montpellier

1/5/2020

Coupe de France · 32nd FinalsStade Auguste-Delaune II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Reims Sainte-Anne28%

×Draw29%

Montpellier44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reims Sainte-AnneExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.25

Reims Sainte-Anne

0.93

Montpellier

1.25

Montpellier creates 34% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

1.09

creates per match

1.59

0.91

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Reims Sainte-Anne

1.09

Montpellier

1.59

allows per match

Reims Sainte-Anne

0.91

Montpellier

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims Sainte-Anne+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims Sainte-Anne ↓

Montpellier →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Reims Sainte-Anne or draw

56%

Reims Sainte-Anne or Montpellier

71%

Draw or Montpellier

72%

Winning margin

Reims Sainte-Anne wins by 2+

10%

Montpellier wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Reims Sainte-Anne 1+ goals

61%

Reims Sainte-Anne 2+ goals

24%

Reims Sainte-Anne 3+ goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

71%

Montpellier 2+ goals

36%

Montpellier 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Reims Sainte-Anne (draw refunded)

39%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reims Sainte-Anne at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reims Sainte-Anne attack 1.09 + Montpellier defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Montpellier attack 1.59 + Reims Sainte-Anne defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reims Sainte-Anne scores more

28%

level

29%

Montpellier scores more

44%

Montpellier at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff