Reims Sainte-Anne 2–1 Gazelec FC Ajaccio

Reims Sainte-Anne

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

11/16/2025

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Reims Sainte-Anne32%

×Draw31%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reims Sainte-AnneExpected goals in this matchGazelec FC Ajaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.04

Reims Sainte-Anne

0.96

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.09

creates per match

1.17

0.91

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Reims Sainte-Anne

1.09

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

1.17

allows per match

Reims Sainte-Anne

0.91

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims Sainte-Anne+0.00on par

Gazelec FC Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims Sainte-Anne ↓

Gazelec FC Ajaccio →

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Reims Sainte-Anne or draw

63%

Reims Sainte-Anne or Gazelec FC Ajaccio

69%

Draw or Gazelec FC Ajaccio

68%

Winning margin

Reims Sainte-Anne wins by 2+

12%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Reims Sainte-Anne 1+ goals

62%

Reims Sainte-Anne 2+ goals

25%

Reims Sainte-Anne 3+ goals

Gazelec FC Ajaccio 1+ goals

65%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio 2+ goals

28%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reims Sainte-Anne (draw refunded)

47%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reims Sainte-Anne at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Gazelec FC Ajaccio away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reims Sainte-Anne attack 1.09 + Gazelec FC Ajaccio defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Gazelec FC Ajaccio attack 1.17 + Reims Sainte-Anne defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reims Sainte-Anne scores more

32%

level

31%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio scores more

37%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gazelec FC Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff