Reims Sainte-Anne 1–0 Dunkerque: Result & Stats

Reims Sainte-Anne

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dunkerque

12/8/2019

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Robert Pires

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Reims Sainte-Anne27%

×Draw26%

Dunkerque47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reims Sainte-AnneExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.46

Reims Sainte-Anne

1.04

Dunkerque

1.46

Dunkerque creates 40% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.09

creates per match

2.00

0.91

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Reims Sainte-Anne

1.09

Dunkerque

2.00

allows per match

Reims Sainte-Anne

0.91

Dunkerque

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims Sainte-Anne+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims Sainte-Anne ↓

Dunkerque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Reims Sainte-Anne or draw

53%

Reims Sainte-Anne or Dunkerque

74%

Draw or Dunkerque

73%

Winning margin

Reims Sainte-Anne wins by 2+

10%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Reims Sainte-Anne 1+ goals

65%

Reims Sainte-Anne 2+ goals

28%

Reims Sainte-Anne 3+ goals

9%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

77%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

43%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Reims Sainte-Anne (draw refunded)

37%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims Sainte-Anne at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims Sainte-Anne attack 1.09 + Dunkerque defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Dunkerque attack 2.00 + Reims Sainte-Anne defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Reims Sainte-Anne scores more

27%

level

26%

Dunkerque scores more

47%

Dunkerque at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Reims Sainte-Anne 1–0 Dunkerque

Reims Sainte-Anne beat Dunkerque 1-0 in Coupe de France on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Robert Pires in Reims.

Reims Sainte-Anne vs Dunkerque — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Coupe de France: Reims Sainte-Anne 1–0 Dunkerque