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Reggina vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Reggina
Reggina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
2/10/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 22Stadio Oreste Granillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Reggina48%
×Draw27%
Virtus Entella25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggina
1.40
Virtus Entella
0.94

Reggina creates 49% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 60 away

creates per match

Reggina
1.18
Virtus Entella
0.68

allows per match

Reggina
1.19
Virtus Entella
1.62

finishing

Reggina+0.00on par
Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Reggina or draw
75%
Reggina or Virtus Entella
73%
Draw or Virtus Entella
52%

Winning margin

Reggina wins by 2+
23%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Reggina 1+ goals
75%
Reggina 2+ goals
41%
Reggina 3+ goals
17%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
61%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
24%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Reggina (draw refunded)
65%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina attack 1.18 + Virtus Entella defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Virtus Entella attack 0.68 + Reggina defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Reggina scores more
48%
level
27%
Virtus Entella scores more
25%

Reggina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Reggina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Reggina 1–0 Virtus Entella

Reggina beat Virtus Entella 1-0 in Serie B on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Reggio Calabria.