Reggina 3–1 Vicenza Virtus: Result & Stats

Reggina

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vicenza Virtus

3/2/2022

Serie B · Round 27Stadio Oreste Granillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Reggina44%

×Draw27%

Vicenza Virtus29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RegginaExpected goals in this matchVicenza Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.10

Reggina

1.41

Vicenza Virtus

1.10

Reggina creates 28% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 44 away

1.18

creates per match

1.02

1.19

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Reggina

1.18

Vicenza Virtus

1.02

allows per match

Reggina

1.19

Vicenza Virtus

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggina+0.00on par

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina ↓

Vicenza Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Reggina or draw

71%

Reggina or Vicenza Virtus

73%

Draw or Vicenza Virtus

56%

Winning margin

Reggina wins by 2+

21%

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reggina 1+ goals

76%

Reggina 2+ goals

41%

Reggina 3+ goals

17%

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

67%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

30%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Reggina (draw refunded)

60%

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina attack 1.18 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Reggina defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reggina scores more

44%

level

27%

Vicenza Virtus scores more

29%

Reggina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reggina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff