Reggina 2–1 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Reggiana

R. Rivas 87'

A. Montalto 5'

A. Kargbo 45+1'

4/17/2021

Serie B · Round 34Stadio Oreste Granillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Reggina44%

×Draw27%

Reggiana29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RegginaExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.05

Reggina

1.35

Reggiana

1.05

Reggina creates 29% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

1.18

creates per match

0.91

1.19

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Reggina

1.18

Reggiana

0.91

allows per match

Reggina

1.19

Reggiana

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggina+0.00on par

Reggiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reggina or draw

71%

Reggina or Reggiana

73%

Draw or Reggiana

56%

Winning margin

Reggina wins by 2+

20%

Reggiana wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reggina 1+ goals

74%

Reggina 2+ goals

39%

Reggina 3+ goals

15%

Reggiana 1+ goals

65%

Reggiana 2+ goals

28%

Reggiana 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Reggina (draw refunded)

60%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Reggiana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina attack 1.18 + Reggiana defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Reggiana attack 0.91 + Reggina defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reggina scores more

44%

level

27%

Reggiana scores more

29%

Reggina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reggina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

A. Montalto

Reggina · F

7.2

Match Events

5'

A. Montalto↳ S. Edera

45'

Adriano Montalto

45+1'

A. Kargbo↳ K. Laribi

57'

R. Rivas← S. Edera

57'

G. Denis← A. Montalto

67'

I. Radrezza← K. Laribi

73'

M. Ardemagni← F. Rossi

76'

D. Liotti← M. Folorunsho

76'

D. Stavropoulos← G. Loiacono

77'

M. Crimi← N. Bianchi

81'

M. Espeche← S. Muratore

82'

G. Lunetta← I. Varone

87'

R. Rivas↳ D. Liotti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RegginaReggiana

Overview

56%Possession44%

6Total Shots7

2Corners4

19Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots7

2On Target2

3Off Target3

1Blocked2

6Inside Box3

0Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

488Total Passes359

381Accurate Passes265

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides5